If you are like most of us you surf the television news, looking for answers to the economic recovery. You are looking for a sign, a glimmer of hope that the economy is turning around. Okay then, if the economy isn’t turning around, you are hoping at least it is about to bottom out. You watch the supposed experts, the politicians, and the economists. You watch as they skip and scramble, avoiding the more pointed interview questions with double talk and obscurity. You realize nobody knows nuthin’.
The fact is, as attested by Christopher Leonard in the Times Union, it seems every report about the job industry contradicts another. It is reported that unemployment claims are slowing down, which should be a good thing. But then there seems to be more layoffs with even more on the horizon. The labor market is strengthening. No, it is weakening. It’s worse than horse racing or tougher than selling popcorn at a flea circus. It’s tough work, and few experts if any seem to get it right. The only difference between you and them is they are getting paid to make their predictions.
Leonard cites with logic and accuracy some of the reasons predictions and analysis is so grossly inaccurate. That’s my term, not his. As a background checking service, we wonder why most analysis is universal and not broken into segments. While many sectors are slow, there are industries that are actually hiring. Or to be more precise, there are segments of these industries that are hiring. It is not all up or all down. That in itself contributes to the confusion.
For me, the thing I remember is that the unemployed worker is getting paid nothing to look for work and contemplate his fate. The unemployed records receives no recompense for trying to assess what is going to happen to him and his friends. The television expert is getting paid for his opinion. He is getting paid whether or not he is right or wrong. Consider the expert a paid witness. He is hired to give insight to employment reports and the economic climate. And sometimes any opinion will do.
